Storminess and vulnerability along the Atlantic coastlines of Europe: analysis of storm records and of a greenhouse gases induced climate scenario     

I. Lozano  R. J. N. Devoy  W. May  U. Andersen 《Marine Geology》2004,210(1-4):205-225

Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess on the Atlantic margin of Europe forms the main objective of this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been examined for the period 1940–1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic in the analysis of storm records for European coasts. The study examines the evolution in the occurrence of storms since the 1940s and also their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift in the wind climate, with regionally more severe winters and calmer summers established. This pattern appears to be linked to a northward displacement in the main North Atlantic cyclone track.

An experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T106) has also been used to model the effect of a greenhouse gases induced warming climate on the climatology of coastal storms in the region. The experiment consists of (1), a 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO₂ concentrations and (2), a 30-year perturbed period corresponding to a time when the radiative forcing has doubled in terms of equivalent CO₂ concentrations. The boundary conditions have been obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation at low horizontal resolution. An algorithm was developed to allow the identification of individual cyclone movements in selected coastal zones. For most of the northern part of the study region, covering Ireland and Scotland, results describe the establishment by ca. 2060 of a tendency for fewer but more intense storms.

The impacts of these changes in storminess for the vulnerability of European Atlantic coasts are considered. For low-lying, exposed and ‘soft’ sedimentary coasts, as in Ireland, these changes in storminess are likely to result in significant localised increases in coastal erosion.  相似文献   

Palynological Evidence on Climate Changes in the East China Sea During Mid and Late Holocene     

李珍  王永吉  刘振夏  蓝东兆 《海洋通报(英文版)》2001,3(2)

The pollen analysis of DGKS9617 core in the East China Sea (covering about the last 6800 years) shows five obvious pollen assemblages and seven sub-assemblages. Combined with the sediment and the result of diatom analysis, the climate changes are reconstructed during the Middle and Late Holocene. Corresponding to the pollen assemblages, the climate shifts just as follows: Assemblage Ⅰ-Warm and Dry Stage, Assemblage Ⅱ-Cool and Humid Stage, Assemblage Ⅲ-Hot and Dry Stage (the mean annual temperature is 2～3 ℃ higher than that today ), Assemblage Ⅳ-Cool and Humid Stage, Assemblage Ⅴ-Wann and Dry Stage. The third stage is divided into three substages i.e. a slight colder and dry one, a slight wanner and humid one and a slight warmer and dry one. During the fifth stage, the climate becomes similar to that today with three warm substages and two cool substages.  相似文献   

The flow of Atlantic water to the North Icelandic Shelf and its relation to the drift of cod larvae   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jonsson  Steingrimur; Valdimarsson  Hethinn 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2005,62(7):1350-1359

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Capelin (Mallotus villosus) distribution and climate: a sea "canary" for marine ecosystem change     

Rose  G.A. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2005,62(7):1524-1530

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潮汐对瞬态气候响应模拟的影响研究     

于溢  刘海龙  林鹏飞  兰健 《海洋学报(英文版)》2020,39(1):52-62

In this study, the impact of oceanic processes on the sensitivity of transient climate change is investigated using two sets of coupled experiments with and without tidal forcing, which are termed Exp_Tide and Exp_Control,respectively. After introducing tidal forcing, the transient climate response(TCR) decreases from 2.32 K to 1.90 K,and the surface air temperature warming at high latitudes decreases by 29%. Large ocean heat uptake efficiency and heat storage can explain the low TCR in Exp_Tide. Approximately 21% more heat is stored in the ocean in Exp_Tide(1.10×10~(24) J) than in Exp_Control(0.91×10~(24) J). Most of the large ocean warming occurs in the upper 1 000 m between 60°S and 60°N, primarily in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans. This ocean warming is closely related to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC). The initial transport at mid-and high latitudes and the decline in the AMOC observed in Exp_Tide are both larger than those observed in Exp_Control. The spatial structures of AMOC are also different with and without tidal forcing in present experiments. The AMOC in Exp_Tide has a large northward extension. We also investigated the relationship between AMOC and TCR suggested by previous studies using the present experiments.  相似文献   

Bathymetric shift in the distribution of Atlantic surfclams: response to warmer ocean temperature     

Weinberg  James R. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2005,62(7):1444-1453

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一种准确通用的台风路径预报模式   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

朱敬海  潘杰丽 《海洋预报》2007,24(1):69-74

应用天气学理论,对台风云图的晴空区轴线制约台风移动的规律进行物理解释。根据台风云团与晴空区之间存在的干、湿梯度力和推动台风前进的惯性力的互相关系,建立台风移向预报方程和轨迹预报方程,分析论证了台风移向变化的物理过程,把影响台风移动的复杂因子转化为单一的预报因子。  相似文献   

Physical and anthropogenic effects on observed long-term nutrient changes in the Irish Sea     

G. L. Evans  P. J. le B. Williams  E. G. Mitchelson-Jacob 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2003,57(5-6):1159-1168

The trend in Irish Sea nutrient concentrations over the last four decades has been considered to reflect changes in anthropogenic loading. Comparison of a long-term database for the Menai Strait, North Wales, with an established historic data set for the Cypris station, Isle of Man, indicates that climate also has a significant influence on observations of nutrient concentrations. Data are presented detailing long-term shifts in nitrate, phosphate and silicate measurements since the 1960s at these two fixed sampling sites in the Irish Sea. Broad systematic changes observed in all three nutrients over the decades show a rise from the 1960s through to the 1980s, followed generally by an overall decline in the 1990s. Decadal-scale salinity changes occur in the opposite sense to nutrient changes. Anthropogenic inputs from freshwater cannot fully account for observed nutrient trends, neither is there evidence for shifts in nutrient concentrations in oceanic waters over the past four decades. Climatically forced movement in the geographical position of the freshwater/seawater mixing zone over a decadal time scale could, however, give rise to the observed shifts in nutrient concentration and salinity. This cannot alter nutrient concentration and salinity per se, but causes the measurements taken at fixed sampling sites to fluctuate inversely over this time scale. It is concluded that there is complex interplay between anthropogenic loading and climate affecting the distribution of nutrients in the Irish Sea.  相似文献   

Storms and shoreline retreat in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Donald L. Forbes  George S. Parkes  Gavin K. Manson  Lorne A. Ketch 《Marine Geology》2004,210(1-4):169-204

Storms play a major role in shoreline recession on transgressive coasts. In the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL), southeastern Canada, long-term relative sea-level rise off the North Shore of Prince Edward Island has averaged 0.3 m/century over the past 6000 years (>0.2 m/century over 2000 years). This has driven long-term coastal retreat at mean rates >0.5 m/a but the variance and details of coastal profile response remain poorly understood. Despite extensive sandy shores, sediment supply is limited and sand is transferred landward into multidecadal to century-scale storage in coastal dunes, barrier washover deposits, and flood-tidal delta sinks. Charlottetown tide-gauge records show mean relative sea-level rise of 3.2 mm/a (0.32 m/century) since 1911. A further rise of 0.7±0.4 m is projected over the next 100 years. When differenced from tidal predictions, the water-level data provide a 90-year record of storm-surge occurrence. Combined with wind, wave hindcast, and sea-ice data, this provides a catalogue of potentially significant coastal storms. We also document coastal impacts from three recent storms of great severity in January and October 2000 and November 2001. Digital photogrammetry (1935–1990) and shore-zone surveys (1989–2001) show large spatial and temporal variance in coastal recession rates, weakly correlated with the storm record, in part because of wave suppression or coastal protection by sea ice. Large storms cause rapid erosion from which recovery depends in part on local sand supply, but barrier volume may be conserved by washover deposition. Barrier shores with dunes show high longshore and interdecadal variance, with extensive multidecadal healing of former inlet and overwash gaps. This reflects recovery from an episode of widespread overwash prior to 1935, possibly initiated by intense storms or groups of storms in the latter half of the 19th century. With evidence from the storms of 2000–2001, this points to the importance of storm clustering on scales of weeks to years in determining erosion vulnerability, as well as the need for a long-term, large-scale perspective in assessing coastal stability. The expected acceleration in relative sea-level rise, together with projections of increasing storm intensity and greatly diminished winter ice cover in the southern GSL, implies a significant increase in coastal erosion hazards in future.  相似文献   

天目山千亩田泥炭腐殖化度记录的中全新世气候变化   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  

尹茜  朱诚  马春梅  王富葆  赵志平  郑朝贵  黄林燕  田晓四 《海洋地质与第四纪地质》2006,26(6):117-122

以14C测年为基础,构建了天目山千亩田地区泥炭沼泽剖面年龄-深度模式曲线,通过该区的腐殖化度与烧失量分析研究,发现两者呈现出很好的相关性,共同记录了该地区4 200 aBP以来的气候变化,可划分出3个主要阶段:早期(4 135±40~3 200 aBP)泥炭腐殖化度偏低,指示气候湿热;中期(3 200~630 aBP)泥炭腐殖化度偏高,指示气候温凉偏干;晚期(630 aBP以来),泥炭腐殖化度偏低,气候温凉湿润。  相似文献